I offer the ways, the tracks or, we will call them what we want, to stop the spread of the virus.
An evaluation without taking a position and without touching anyone.
We are to provide solutions and not create problems.
But everyone will see noon at their door.
I am a free electron.
Prof. Salim Djelouat
Prof. in medical and biomedical analyzes
Certified medical expert in medicine, health and well-being - Ooreka - Paris
What I suggest you read in this publication
I - Introduction
II - 1 st Track- must know and control the whole process of transmission of the virus SARS-CoV 2
III - 2 nd floor - and that to deal with this pandemic, not as the first wave, but second wave.
IV - 3 rd Track- Containment?
V - The 4 th track - Wearing a surgical mask
VI - The 5 th track - The advice of a diet
VII - The 6 th track - About containment and de-containment?
1 - My strategies for achieving good containment:
2 - How to de-contain?
VIII - The 7 thpiste- The “stop and go”
strategy 1 - What does this strategy consist of?
2 - The advantages of this strategy
3 - The risks of this strategy
IX - From the “stop and go” strategy to the “DIY” strategy
X - General conclusion
XI - Recommended readings
I - Introduction
Stopping or at best slowing down the spread of CoViD -19 is the goal of all governments around the world.
How easy is it to achieve this goal?
My answer is yes , but
But, There is a corn.
This but depends on several tracks that must be known, followed and above all to be respected.
II - The 1 st track
It is necessary to know and to control the whole process of the transmission of the virus SARS-CoV-2
This track is for people who are supposed to follow and control the evolution of the pandemic in the country.
They call them “the committees”, “the commissions”, “the experts” and whatever else.
This process of its transmission I described in my first article which I devoted to this virus.
Click on my site link to read the article, which I titled:
COVID - 19 - THE MAIN IS THE ESSENTIAL -
http://salimdjelouat.com/covid-19-le-principal-cest-lessentiel/
Note:
This post was also shared on the Facebook page of the Algerian Ministry of Health (click on the attached link) .
https://www.facebook.com/msprhdz/posts/1318351855024978
1 - Reminder on its transmission, therefore its propagation -
In any microbial transmission (bacterial, viral or even parasitic), there is a pattern, which goes from contamination - transmission - propagation - (exposure to the virus in our case), passing by incubation at the onset of the disease (the first signs) and of course its evolution .
1.1 - Contamination - Transmission - Propagation -
Can only be done by an “unknown” carrier, who will be patient number 1 (or patient 1).
This person, whom we called sick 1, is a healthy carrier.
Transmission or spread of the virus is irreversible.
The bottom line
- Especially for the scientific monitoring and management committees - they only shine by their absence.
This is because this virus spreads from a person with no sign of the disease to other people, unlike other viruses and in particular the "flu" viruses.
So the number of people can only be x contaminated people.
This number of people " x ", "contaminated" will go through a phase, called the "incubation" phase of the disease.
1.2 - The incubation phase
This is a period which goes from the penetration (contamination) of the virus into the body, until the development of signs of the disease (symptomatology).
- Very important
During this entire incubation phase, infected people will spread the virus to those around them.
- Note
When I read or hear scientists say, that a sick person can infect only 2 people, I am speechless, stunned and amazed.
This person who harbors the virus (without any symptomatology), will contaminate all the people who will be in close contact with it.
Nobody chooses who will infect whom, neither the virus, nor unfortunately this person (who remains for this time a healthy carrier, or a reservoir of virus).
I wonder ?
Why, when a case is detected in a company, an administration or anywhere else, only the person who has tested positive (or who presents typical signs of the disease) is "followed", while his entourage is left to him- even ?
We ask them to go home and wait?
During this " waiting" period , the risk of transmissions remains high and not controlled.
All those around them will be contaminated if this person "put on hold" is a " healthy carrier ".
This adopted strategy is the only one responsible for the increase in the cases recorded these days.
- What you should not forget
In immunocompromised people with pulmonary, cardiac and other pathologies, this virus can become dangerous if management has not been done as quickly as possible.
- As a reminder
We must remember that aroundOctober / Novemberwe sufferedan influenza pandemic.
This pandemic has gone virtually unnoticed, as it is classified as "seasonal flu".
As far as I'm concerned, this flu pandemic is due to SARS-CoV-2 and remains for me the first wave of this pandemic.
People who have been ill during this time have developed “adaptive” antibodies and therefore have immunity.
In Algeria, this flu has affected more than half of the population, if not 3/4 of the population.
- In children?
The child remains a healthy carrier of the virus, therefore it can transmit the virus to those around him.
So precautions must be taken at the child's level.
Especially if in doubt, do not leave the child in contact with people with chronic pathologies.
My recommendations
In the event of a positive diagnosis for CoViD-19, take charge of the infected person and isolate people who have been in contact with the carrier of the virus and not send them home, telling them to take care of themselves or to wait.
Wait for what ?
Do they contaminate their family, neighbors, friends?
How many people will be infected?
The epidemiological investigation must go back upstream in order to identify all the people who have had contact.
This is the only way to effectively curb contamination, slow it down and therefore control the spread of the virus.
III - The 2 nd track
and that to deal with this pandemic, not as the first wave, but as the second wave
As I have said before and I will say it again, we suffered the first wave around the months of November / mid-December 2019 .
No country in the world wants to recognize it and especially to admit it.
My second wave theory and not first wave, was motivated by the so-called “Spanish” fever pandemic.
This pandemic is due to a virus (H1N1).
Read my detailed article on my site by clicking on the link:
CoViD-19- How to stop it or at best slow its spread - Our solutions
http://salimdjelouat.com/covid-19-comment-la-stopper-ou-au-mieux-ralentir-sa- spread-nos-solutions /
When I hear a minister tell us that we suffered the peak at the end of April, I laughed, because we have not reached a peak and the peak is not a reliable factor.
It feels like a disaster movie.
We had to talk a lot more about the epidemic bell than about a hypothetical peak.
The peak must be followed by a plateau, which will be followed by a decline.
The reality is there, and we are living it.
No peak has yet been reached?
1 - If we manage this pandemic as being the second wave, we would have prepared to live with it for a period of 6 to 8 months.
So this second wave will end, according to my theory always around mid-August or the end of August.
2 - Thereafter we will have a respite of 15 days to 1 month , before going or not towards the 3rd wave.
According to my theory, this 3 rd wave, or happen to announce the beginning of October, or even mid-October and will not last very long (around the end of November 2020).
3 - In the event that we are going to undergo a third wave, the latter will not have the impact as vast as the 2nd wave and will be of less importance in the contaminations, for the simple reason that the population is found to be immune .
4 - This 3 rd wave by its short duration and its lesser importance, will herald the end of the epidemic (speaking of the country).
It may also announce the end of the pandemic.
This pandemic will go away on its own before a vaccine is put on the market.
It is "the law" of pandemics.
The example of the so-called “Spanish” pandemic is there and there, just to be inspired by it, that's what I did.
- What to remember
That we must realize that we are at the 2nd wave and not at the first wave and therefore manage it as it is.
That it is not too late for a good control of this "epidemic", just to manage it with intelligence, tact and if necessary with more severity.
The interest of all comes before any other consideration.
See Chapter: 3 rd floor.
IV - The 3 rd track
Containment?
Containment as it was proposed and carried out, has shown all its weaknesses.
The containment that was established at the "epicenter of the epidemic" was not well prepared and therefore failures have emerged.
Especially with regard to the management of “food” stocks.
If we think of total containment, it would be preferable to study it, prepare it and evaluate it.
And do not make the mistake of entrusting it to neighborhood committees or associations.
I propose a minimum confinement of 35 days for the entire population and even I wanted this confinement to last 40 days (quarantine), the real and the only way, which can stop the spread of the virus.
But we can review this confinement
by the “stop and go” strategy.
See chapter 7 th track.
In my article that I ask you to read and whose link is attached:
Click on the link to my site to read the article, which I entitled:
COVID - 19 - THE MAIN IS ESSENTIALS -
http://salimdjelouat.com/covid-19-le-principal-cest-lessentiel/
Unfortunately what has not been done.
Why ?
God only knows and I know it because none of my articles have been read because they are not signed by a foreign name.
- Recommendation
The danger of the spread of the virus, does not come from the population that inhabits the city (the residents), but from the movement of people from one city to another city, from one village to the city is so on. .
In containment, it would be desirable to limit the travel distances from one point to another.
Prevent the movement of men.
In the case of absolute necessity (food, medicine and other), health checks (will be carried out on all drivers and conveyors)
These checks will be carried out directly on the roads and at the entrance to towns.
See: The 6 th floor - About containment and decontainment?
V - The 4 th track
Wearing a surgical mask
Forcing people to wear the mask otherwise, sanctions will rain, has not been appreciated by the population.
Today, the mask is worn as: necklace, elbow protector, armband, bracelet, rolled up, in the pocket, etc.
One of our ministers gives us the example of wearing a mask.
the "necklace" mask
At the sight of the police, they put him up for fear of paying a fine.
We even saw people lend it (the scene took place at the level of the large post office in Constantine), retirees forced to enter the post office, had to wear the mask.
Some people did not have a mask, so they ask whoever did to lend it to them so that they can enter the premises.
And it works.
The communication of the State, on the wearing of the mask is a failure.
The reason is simple, we should not force people to wear a mask, we must explain to them the why of wearing the mask, in what interest.
The pedagogy of wearing a mask should go in the direction of accepting the other, wearing it or not?
Why legislate on the wearing of the mask to taxi drivers and then withdraw the decision to wear the mask.
Why this cacophony?
Avoid, let's avoid cacophonies, because it is in the credibility of the decisions which will be taken or which have been taken.
Before making decisions, you have to think carefully about them, define their objectives , what targets they are going to be addressed, what means should be used to convey the message and make its assessment.
Nothing could be simpler, just pedagogy.
Firmness and flexibility are the only two watchwords.
Wearing a mask remains "compulsory" in administrations and places open to the public.
Can't a “populous” neighborhood grocer be forced to require his customers to wear a mask?
We can only recommend it to him.
Impose the wearing of a mask in a shopping center, yes it must be done.
The number of people circulating per day is quite large compared to a neighborhood grocery store or a mini-market.
To conclude
We cannot take the same course at different levels.
Before, we must first define the target, the objectives, the means and then evaluate in order to make corrections.
By way of recommendation
Why impose the wearing of a mask on a person, when he is isolated, being alone, in the street, in a public garden, why not allow him to “breathe” the oxygen, why prohibit it by what mask wearing?
Really will wearing a mask protect? If the other barrier gestures are not respected.
When the mask is worn according to medical and scientific recommendations, it is only effective in 98% of cases.
From the way of mistreating your mask and how it is worn, the mask with us only protects 60%.
So let's be flexible or firmer
VI - The 5 th track
Advice from a supply
This advice should focus on before and during the pandemic.
Where have our dieticians and nutritionists gone?
Nothing, we can't hear them, they are far away.
Dietetic and nutritional advice is of great service to the population.
How to boost your immunity, what foods, drinks, vitamins or minerals will be needed.
Food remains the best prevention in order to fight against microbes, stress….
Pasteur said it : the microbe is nothing, everything is linked to the terrain.
I devoted a chapter to food that should be given priority during this pandemic.
See my article by clicking on this link:
Click on the link of my site to read the article, which I entitled : COVID - 19 - THE MAIN, IT IS THE ESSENTIAL -
http: // salimdjelouat .com / covid-19-the-main-is-the-essential /
VII - The 6 th track
On the subject of confinement and deconfinement?
But we can review this confinement by the “stop and go” strategy .
See chapter 7 th track.
To deconfin, you must first confine.
Why talk about deconfinement in Algeria, when we have never really confined.
We should explain to the population that confinement is not sustainable, but remains an effective instrument to make us “victorious” out of this health crisis.
It will allow us to better manage hospital capacities, with the aim of better care and good monitoring of both sick people and others.
That confinement is a moment to pass and if it will be respected, will lead us to victory over this health crisis.
1 - My strategies for successful containment -
Algeria is not considered as an epidemic focus, but as a "local" transmission focus.
This means that it is possible to eradicate this pandemic from the country.
1.1 - With regard to confinement inside cities
It would be preferable to shorten the schedules, in order to allow people to go shopping…, and this for a distance of no more than 2 km (from the place of their home instead of the business they have chosen).
This strategy will make it possible to limit distances and especially meeting other people from other neighborhoods.
The best time slots should go from 5 a.m. to 3 p.m. in the afternoon (we know that with this heat, most people will meet at home before 1 p.m.).
1.2 - Food security (and everything needed, medicines, etc.)
Production, distribution, must be guaranteed by the public authorities.
In no case charge the neighborhood committees or associations for their management.
Only the State is the guarantor.
1.3 - Catering, fast-food, cafeteria…
Authorize them on the sole condition of making take-away meals (snacks, pizza, sandwiches…).
We cannot make fast the workers of the administrations, communities…
1.4 - Taxis and other means of transport
Only taxis will be authorized for transport within the city.
The tram remains a risk of spreading the virus, even if all measures have been taken.
Public transport will be prohibited during this period of confinement.
1.5 - Stores for basic necessities
These stores will remain open, but under strict control by the police and gendarmerie.
Social distancing must be the keystone and must be respected.
1.6 - Family visits
We must not prohibit family visits, but better manage them and those with the agreement of all.
Only visits within the same city will be accepted (I do not say authorized).
The respect of the confinement schedules will be respected.
Do not repeat what happened with Eid el Fitr.
Total containment of the 2 days of Eid and relaxation after these two days, as if the party was postponed for two days.
1.7 - Walking for medical purposes
Some people have a medical need to go out, walk, these people limit the distance to less than 1 km from their home.
These people will be able to indulge in their walking or physical activity between 6:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m.
The duration of the walk will be 20 minutes to 30 minutes.
With all these reductions, we will no longer be able to talk about the establishment of a curfew, but of preventive measures to limit the circulation of the virus.
- Observation
We know that the confinement that was established was not respected at all (fortunately not, by the entire population).
Certain districts respected it at 80%, while others respected it only at 20 or even 30%.
We do not manage a health crisis of this magnitude, with feelings, nor with "pleasing everyone".
Recommendation
Decisions should be taken in the interests of all.
They must be taken with firmness (certainly), flexibility (a lot) and this for the acceptance of these decisions.
Common sense should prevail over all other considerations.
By the way, where have the lesson-givers, the cult people gone?
2 - How to deconfin?
The deconfinement, does not mean "return to normal", just we will start a walk, a strategy to arrive at what was "normal".
Normal, before the health crisis.
Deconfinement is a solution that remains risky and feared, for all these reasons that it must be done gradually and carefully.
It remains necessary, in order to allow us to know where we are with this health crisis.
Have we achieved group immunity or not?
If so , the virus will no longer circulate, but if it is not, the virus will be there and we will have to "live" with it.
- Recommendations
It must be prepared and announced to the population before 15 days of its implementation.
Group decisions are best accepted and respected.
So do with it.
The state must have at least a stock of more than 20 million tests.
This will make it possible to give more clarity to the extent of the epidemic, by the administration of tests (to intensify the control).
Do not deconfin, if we are able to make a good tracing "of the different contacts", direct with sick or healthy carriers.
How to do this tracing: 1 - Go back upstream, if positive cases are found. 2 - Identify people with the disease and all the people with whom they have been in contact. 3 - Test these people 4 - Isolate these people (healthy carriers) and not tell them to go home and wait. 5 - Monitor the evolution of the disease of these people.
- Note
Certain technologies (Bluetooth, etc.) cannot be applied to mobile phones, because most people do not have a phone supporting this technology.
So the best means of surveillance are health services, information ...
- Observation
When we want to deconfin, we must prepare to receive a boomerang effect, if all the conditions have not been met.
Deconfining the epicenter of the epidemic, or any other city or region, to please a population is a strategic error and of bad quality.
VIII - The 7 th track
strategy of " stop and go "
Algeria is the second country in the world to have adopted it (after Singapore).
Is it reflected or done without reflection?
It must be said that the level of reflection, analysis and support, different between the Singaporean population and ours.
In the former the motivation is high, in the others it is roughly, when a large number of this population still doubts the existence of this virus.
1 - What does this strategy consist of?
This strategy consists of moving from deconfinement to re-containment and each time there is a new increase in new cases.
It must also take into account the appearance of clusters * , which can develop in certain wilayas.
* A cluster is a new source of contamination, which is developing in a city, a region, etc.
This strategy must be well framed.
We need a very good committee to monitor the evolution of the epidemic.
This committee should not be set up at the national level, but at the level of each wilaya.
The management of this crisis should not be carried out at the national level, but at the level of the wilayas.
2 - The advantages of this strategy
1 - Avoid saturating hospitals
2 - Limit contact between people during re-confinement
3 - Allow for a sero-epidemiological study .
If we reach a figure of 65 to 70% of the population with antibodies, this means that we have group immunity, sufficient enough to stop the virus.
Two conditions will be necessary: specific antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and long-lasting immunity - adaptive immunity -.
4 - It weighs less on the economy ,thanks to periods of deconfinement.
5 - and as I said before,it will allow us to identify possible dormant “clusters” .
Clusters are viral reservoirs, with asymptomatic people, who “may” transmit the virus without knowing it.
3 - The risks of this strategy
The risks are summarized in the general conclusion.
IX - From the "stop and go" strategy to the "DIY" strategy
What I have just read concerning the latest recommendations for containment in Algeria leaves me speechless.
What it says (the gist of our subject): "The renewal until July 13, 2020 of the current device for reorganizing home confinement provided for by Executive Decree No. 20-159 of June 13, 2020, which provides for the lifting of home confinement for nineteen (19) wilayas and the establishment of home confinement from 8:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. the next day for 29 other wilayas " ..., so far no problem, but or the problem arises is when I read the following:"However, ladies and gentlemen the Walis must, when the health situation requires it and after approval by the high authorities of the country, proceed to the partial or total targeted confinement of one or more localities, communes or districts with homes or clusters contamination ” and there, anything .
Why ?
When it is written: " proceed with partial or total containment targeted ???
We are already in partial containment.
We come back to target and it is written: "one or more localities, communes, or districts ?????
Containment for the municipalities, it remains possible, but total confinement for the neighborhoods, so there, I would like to know how?
How to confine a neighborhood ????
Are we talking about contamination clusters?
We can only talk about clusters if we have carried out a thoughtful deconfinement, read the top of my article.
This solution to the problem is doomed to fail.
We will leave it up to the decision makers.
X - General conclusion
As long as the people do not fully adhere to the recommendations, there will be no positive solutions to the crisis and we will go to total failure, from a "manageable" health crisis to political, food, social crises….
Just understand that the health crisis is a global crisis, that it affects practically all populations of the world.
That only motivated people will emerge victorious from this health crisis.
I end with this quote from Monsieur Victor Hugo:
"When the people are intelligent,
then only the people will be sovereign"
So let's be smart and come out "winner" of this health crisis.
Let us adhere to ideas and not to men.
XI - Recommended readings
http://salimdjelouat.com/sars-cov-2-vs-enfant-enfant-vs-vascularite-maladie-de-kawasaki/
http://salimdjelouat.com/covid-19-et-les-groupes-des-g/
http://salimdjelouat.com/covid-19-vs-religions/
http://salimdjelouat.com/le-stress-psychosocial-ou-detresse-emotionnelle/
http://salimdjelouat.com/sars-cov-2-vs-1er-2eme-et-3eme-vagues-point-de-vue/
http://salimdjelouat.com/covid-19-le-principal-cest-lessentiel/
Prof. Salim Djelouat
Prof. in medical and biomedical analyzes
Certified medical expert in medicine, health and well-being - Ooreka - Paris
Psychotherapist
Scientific author, lecturer
Webmaster and blogger
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